Who is a better Tipster, one with a 25% yield in 120 picks or another one with a 10% yield in 400 picks? In order to compare Tipsters with different profit levels, number of picks, yields and average odds, we have developed and algorithm that provides a Rating -between 0 and 5- for all Tipsters who have a positive yield. The higher the Rating the most likely the Tipster provides real value with his picks.
The Rating statistic has been developed with the objective of creating a results measurement system that is as fair as possible, that accounts for and penalises the influence of luck. The Rating implicity estimates the likelihood that the profits of a Tipster are due to the luck factor. The lower this probability is, the more likely is that the Tipster skill is the determinant factor behind the good performance and therefore the higher the Rating.
The Rating takes into account 5 factors:
1. The yield (profit per amount bet), under different staking strategies, such as the yield calculated with your real stakes at Pyckio or the Yield LS (simulated under a level stakes strategy).
2. The number of picks made
3. The volatility of your results
4. The number of months the Tipster has been tipping at Pyckio
5. The liquidity of the matches where the tipster tips.
We have included in our formula the yield with level stakes for several reasons. First of all, so that the weigth of the picks submitted at high stakes and with high odds is not so significant. It’s not fair that a tipster reaches the PRO status because 30-40-50…% of his profits come from 1 or 2 picks submitted at extremely high odds and with a high stake. Of course those big hits have to be computed but they cannot be a decisive factor for the tipster to reach a high Rating and a high ranking. Moreover, this is not the behaviour of a rational bettor. Second, to prevent some tipsters from making very aggresive and unreasonable variations in their staking wth the objectvive of affecting their Rating “artificially”. Finally, many punters who buy a tipster’s picks prefer to follow their own staking method. Introducing the level stakes results in our Rating formula is more fair and representative of what a bettor looks for when analysing the track record of a tipster.
Volatility refers to the swings or oscilation of the profit curve. More volatiles curves will have a lower rating than less volatile ones. The volatility is a measure used in financial markets to assess the risk of financial assets and we have decided to introduce it at Pyckio because we think the risk must be a factor when evaluating tipsters. Between 2 tipsters with the same number of picks and yield, that with a lower volatility will have a higher rating. Volatility is related to average odds. In general, tipsters with higher average odds will also have a higher volatility.
The minimum Rating you must have to be considered a PRO Tipster is 4.25. If a tipster touchs the 4.25 level he will continue being a PRO if his Rating maintains above 3.75 and the Yield LS doesn’t drop below 3.5%. That is the cushion of a PRO Tipster onces he reaches the PRO status. To achieve 4.25 you’ll have to make a minimum of 500 picks and have a minimum Yield LS of 4.5%.
Only Tipsters in profits with a minimum of 100 picks made will have a >0 Rating. In the remainder of cases the Rating will be 0.
In our tipsters rakings you can see the yield, number of bets and other ratios of all our PROs as well as the rest of our tipsters.